Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5809 · PWM → LGA
departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13 44%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 45%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.20 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.