Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 5829 · BOS → EWR
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 35%
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.