Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5829 · BOS → EWR
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12 38%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.04 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.