Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5831 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 7:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 42%
Thu 10/15 47%
Fri 10/16 51%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.