Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5831 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 7:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Tue 10/13 48%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 47%
Fri 10/16 51%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.