YX 5843 · DCA → LGA

departs 6:07 AM ET · arrives 7:23 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from DCA are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5843 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?