Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5859 · JFK → DCA
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 39%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.