Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5025 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5025 · LGA → AVL

departs 9:21 AM ET · arrives 11:16 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

AVL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5025 · LGA → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?