Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5039 · MSP → GRR

departs 8:17 AM CT · arrives 10:49 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at GRR that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5039 · MSP → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?