Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5169 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5169 · MSP → GRB

departs 2:53 PM CT · arrives 4:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRB?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into GRB at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5169 · MSP → GRB

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRB?