Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5189 · MSP → RST

departs 2:48 PM CT · arrives 3:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at RST more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RST?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RST (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5189 · MSP → RST

Odds over time

How late will it get to RST?