Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5491 · MSP → MCI

departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 4:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5491 · MSP → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?