Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1478 · PHL → FLL

departs 10:59 AM ET · arrives 2:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1478 · PHL → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?