Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 1478 · PHL → FLL

departs 10:47 AM ET · arrives 1:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1478 · PHL → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?