Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1739 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1739 · PHL → STL

departs 9:05 AM ET · arrives 10:51 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1739 · PHL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?