Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1739 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 1739 · PHL → STL

departs 8:49 AM ET · arrives 10:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1739 · PHL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?