Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1806 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1806 · LGA → DFW

departs 10:26 AM ET · arrives 1:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1806 · LGA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?