Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1947 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

departs 5:07 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?