Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2030 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2030 · DCA → STL

departs 2:19 PM ET · arrives 3:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.16667 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2030 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?