Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2172 · MIA → LGA

departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2172 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?