Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2257 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2257 · PHL → TPA

departs 11:54 AM ET · arrives 2:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from PHL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2257 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?