Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2257 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2257 · PHL → TPA

departs 12:12 PM ET · arrives 3:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2257 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?