Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2446 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2446 · BOS → MIA

departs 11:13 AM ET · arrives 2:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from BOS are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.04 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2446 · BOS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?