Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2539 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2539 · MIA → BOS

departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2539 · MIA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?