Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2721 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2721 · PHX → PHL

departs 1:03 PM MT · arrives 8:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2721 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?