Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2721 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2721 · PHX → PHL

departs 1:06 PM MT · arrives 8:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2721 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?