Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 315 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 315 · ORD → DCA

departs 9:44 AM CT · arrives 12:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.26 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 315 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?