Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3255 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 3255 · MIA → EYW

departs 11:54 AM ET · arrives 1:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3255 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?