Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 508 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 508 · LGA → TPA

departs 4:41 PM ET · arrives 7:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 508 · LGA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?