Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 830 · ORD → PHL

departs 1:14 PM CT · arrives 4:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 830 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?