Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 830 · ORD → PHL

departs 1:27 PM CT · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.23 in

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 830 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?