Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 928 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 928 · MIA → STX

departs 10:56 AM ET · arrives 2:02 PM AST

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at STX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 928 · MIA → STX

Odds over time

How late will it get to STX?