Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 946 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow

AA 946 · PHL → DEN

departs 11:18 AM ET · arrives 1:15 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.733333 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 946 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?