Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 946 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 946 · PHL → DEN

departs 11:22 AM ET · arrives 1:11 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 946 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?