Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 946 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Yesterday

AA 946 · PHL → DEN

departs 11:37 AM ET · arrives 2:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from PHL are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

DEN (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 946 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?