Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
B6 1538 · JFK → MVY
departs 2:03 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 28%
Mon 10/19 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MVY (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.