Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 1538 · JFK → MVY
departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 28%
Mon 10/19 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
MVY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MVY (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.