Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 2261 · BOS → MAD
departs 10:32 PM ET · arrives 11:23 AM CEST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Tue 10/13 33%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.