Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 226 · TPA → JFK
departs 7:20 AM ET · arrives 10:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.