Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 226 · TPA → JFK
departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 9:53 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.