Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4342
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4342 · CHO → IAD
departs 6:23 AM ET · arrives 7:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave CHO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
CHO is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CHO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.