Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 870 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow

CX 870 · HKG → SFO

departs 1:23 PM HKT · arrives 9:44 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HKG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CX 870 · HKG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?