Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
CX 870 · HKG → SFO
departs 1:24 PM HKT · arrives 10:31 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG
Weather at each end
HKG (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.