Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
CX 873 · SFO → HKG
departs 12:34 AM PT · arrives 5:42 AM HKT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HKG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HKG?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
CX's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HKG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.