Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1306
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1306 · MSP → ORD
departs 2:55 PM CT · arrives 4:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 28%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sun 10/18 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.