Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 1404 · CHS → LGA

departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 4:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1404 · CHS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?