Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1406 · JFK → AUS
departs 7:07 AM ET · arrives 10:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt
Ceiling 2,500 ft
Visibility 6 mi
Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt
Ceiling 1,000 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.