Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1406 · JFK → AUS
departs 7:07 AM ET · arrives 10:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.