Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1454 · DCA → DTW
departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.