Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1622
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1622 · ORD → DTW
departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 10:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.